Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co (SZSE:000812) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1998. Start your Free Trial

What is Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co (SZSE:000812) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co Ltd (SZSE:000812) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 100 2nd Ring Road West Section, Jinye Xiandai Zhichuang, 6F, Xi'an, Shanxi, CHN, 710065

Website

http://www.jinyegroup.cn

Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology And Education Co Ltd engages in the packaging and decorating of printed materials and the operation of high-tech digital printing technology. It is also involved in the education and cultural industries in China.

Executives

Qin Zhong	Executives
Xiong Han Cheng	Directors, executives
Yuan Han Yuan	Director
Yan Kai	Secretary Dong
Liang Xin Sheng	Executives
Zhou Xin Qing	Executives
Zhao Tian Jiao	Directors, executives
Wang Zhou Suo	Supervisors
Zhang You Qiang	Executives
Shen Ke Qin	Executives
Cheng Bin	Executives
Liang Pei Rong	Director
Li Jing	Executives
Li Qing Quan	Executives
Zhang Chi Lei	Executives

Shaanxi Jinye Science Technology and Education Group Co (SZSE:000812) Headlines

No Headlines