GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Siward Crystal Technology Co Ltd (TPE:2484) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Siward Crystal Technology Co (TPE:2484) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2001. Start your Free Trial

What is Siward Crystal Technology Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Siward Crystal Technology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Siward Crystal Technology Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Siward Crystal Technology Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Siward Crystal Technology Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Siward Crystal Technology Co Ltd (TPE:2484) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ROCO:8183 TPE:3038 TPE:6283 ROCO:8240 ROCO:6609 ROCO:8049 ROCO:6217 ROCO:6207 ROCO:4527 TPE:8104 APH TPE:2317 TEL GLW TPE:2308 SZSE:002475 TSE:6981 TSE:6762 SZSE:000725 JBL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Lane 111, Zhongshan Road, No. 11-1, Section 3, Tanzi District, Taichung, TWN, 42756
Website
https://www.siward.com
Siward Crystal Technology Co Ltd operates as a manufacturer in the crystals and oscillators industry. It is engaged in the research and development, design, production, and sales of quartz frequency control components. The company's product line includes artificial crystals, quartz chips, SAW WAFER, as well as quartz crystals, crystal oscillators, crystal filters, temperature compensation, and voltage control products etc., with a sound supply chain system to provide customers with a full range of services. The company's reportable segments include Siward Taiwan, Siward Japan, Apex Optech Corporation, and others. It generates maximum revenue from the Siward Taiwan segment.

Siward Crystal Technology Co Headlines

No Headlines