TRDA (Entrada Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Entrada Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Entrada Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Entrada Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Entrada Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Entrada Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TRDA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Design Center Place, Suite 17-500, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.entradatx.com

Entrada Therapeutics Inc clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company aiming to transform the lives of patients by establishing a new class of medicines that engage intracellular targets that have long been considered inaccessible. The Company's Endosomal Escape Vehicle (EEV)-therapeutics are designed to enable the efficient delivery of a wide range of therapeutics into a variety of organs and tissues, resulting in an improved therapeutic index. Its pipeline includes solutions for Neuromuscular Disease, Beyond Neuromuscular, and Platform Expansion.

Executives

Kory James Wentworth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6 TIDE STREET, C/O ENTRADA THERAPEUTICS, BOSTON MA 02210
Mpm Bioventures 2018, L.p.	10 percent owner	450 KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Mpm Bioventures 2014, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O MPM ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 450 KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Natarajan Sethuraman	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	6 TIDE STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Nathan J Dowden	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6 TIDE STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Dipal Doshi	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Peter S Kim	director	ONE MERCK DRIVE, P.O. BOX 100, WHITEHOUSE STATION X1 08889
Nerissa Kreher	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AVROBIO, INC., ONE KENDALL SQ., BLDG. 300, STE. 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Gina Chapman	director	C/O CARGO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1900 ALAMEDA DE LAS PULGAS, SUITE 350, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Bernhardt G Zeiher	director	ENTRADA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 TIDE STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Todd Foley	director, 10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Felix Baker	10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Julian Baker	10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
John F Crowley	director	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512