Konica Minolta (TSE:4902) Predictability Rank


TSE:4902 Konica Minolta Inc TSE:4902
55 GF Score
Price 円563.50
GF Value 円468.93
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Konica Minolta Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Konica Minolta Predictability Rank Related Terms

TSE:4902
55GF Score
Konica Minolta Inc TSE:4902
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Konica Minolta Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Konica Minolta (TSE:4902) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Konica Minolta stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円563.50 is trading 20.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円468.93. GuruFocus considers Konica Minolta to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:4902:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: 円468.93 vs. price of 円563.50 (20.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 55/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:4902 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Konica Minolta Business Description

Address 2-7-2 Marunouchi, JP Tower, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 100-7015
Konica Minolta Inc is a Japanese equipment and material manufacturer. The company operates through four segments. The Digital Workplace business covers the development, manufacture, and sale of multifunction printers, related consumables, and IT services and solutions. The Image Solutions business includes medical diagnostic imaging systems, network cameras, and video-related equipment, along with related services and solutions. The Industry business encompasses measuring instruments, functional films for displays, industrial inkjet heads, and professional lenses. The Professional Print business involves digital printing systems and consumables for commercial and industrial markets, as well as printing services and solutions. It generates the majority of revenue Digital workplace segment.
55GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:4902

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円563.50
Price
円468.93
GF Value