Japan Securities Finance Co (TSE:8511) Predictability Rank


TSE:8511 Japan Securities Finance Co Ltd TSE:8511
64 GF Score
Price 円2,280.00
GF Value 円1,935.53
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Japan Securities Finance Co Predictability Rank?

2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Japan Securities Finance Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

TSE:8511
64GF Score
Japan Securities Finance Co Ltd TSE:8511
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Japan Securities Finance Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Japan Securities Finance Co (TSE:8511) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Japan Securities Finance Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円2,280.00 is trading 17.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円1,935.53. GuruFocus considers Japan Securities Finance Co to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:8511:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: 円1,935.53 vs. price of 円2,280.00 (17.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 64/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:8511 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Japan Securities Finance Co Business Description

Address 1-2-10 Nihonbashi-Kayabacho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 103-0025
Japan Securities Finance Co Ltd operates in three business segments: Securities Finance, Trust Banking, and Real Estate Leasing. In the Securities Finance business, which makes up the vast majority of the company's total revenue, the company primarily provides loans for margin transactions where it earns revenue through fees and interest. The Securities Finance segment also earns fees through stock and bond lending and earns interest through bond financing and general loans. The Trust Banking business provides trust services, such as securities trust, and banking services, such as deposits and loans. The Real Estate Leasing business provides services for leasing and managing real estate. The company operates exclusively in Japan.
64GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:8511

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円2,280.00
Price
円1,935.53
GF Value