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George Weston (TSX:WN) Predictability Rank


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What is George Weston Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


George Weston Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

George Weston Predictability Rank Related Terms

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George Weston Business Description

Address
22 St. Clair Avenue East, Suite 800, Toronto, ON, CAN, M4T 2S5
George Weston is a holding company that controls majority stakes in retailer Loblaw and in Choice Properties, a real estate investment trust. Loblaw boasts the largest retail footprint across Canada with 2,500 food retail and pharmacy stores under banners such as Loblaw, No-Frills, Maxi, and Shoppers Drug Mart. Meanwhile, open-ended Choice Properties REIT owns and manages over 700 commercial and residential properties in Canada, generating roughly 60% of its gross rental revenue from its largest tenant Loblaw. Previously, George Weston sold its wholly owned bakery Weston Foods in 2022. The firm is controlled by the Weston family, which owns a 65% stake.
Executives
Richard Dufresne Senior Officer
Rashid Wasti Senior Officer
Willard Galen Garfield Weston 10% Security Holder, Director, Senior Officer
Andrew Michael Bunston Senior Officer
Camilla H. Dalglish Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
William Downe Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
M. Marianne Harris Director, Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
John Stewart Lacey Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Gordon Andrew Mcdonald Currie Senior Officer
Paviter Singh Binning Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Alannah Elizabeth Weston Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Kieran Barry Columb Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Robert George Vaux Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
W. Galen Weston 10% Security Holder
Anthony S. Fell Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder

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