George Weston (TSX:WN) Predictability Rank

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What is George Weston Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

George Weston Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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George Weston Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » George Weston Ltd (TSX:WN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WNGRF:USA WX5:Germany WN.PR.E.PFD:Canada WN.PR.D.PFD:Canada WN.PR.C.PFD:Canada WN.PR.A.PFD:Canada

Address

22 St. Clair Avenue East, Suite 800, Toronto, ON, CAN, M4T 2S5

Website

https://www.weston.ca

George Weston is a holding company that controls majority stakes in retailer Loblaw and in Choice Properties, a real estate investment trust. Loblaw boasts the largest retail footprint across Canada with 2,500 food retail and pharmacy stores under banners such as Loblaw, No-Frills, Maxi, and Shoppers Drug Mart. Meanwhile, open-ended Choice Properties REIT owns and manages over 700 commercial and residential properties in Canada, generating roughly 60% of its gross rental revenue from its largest tenant Loblaw. Previously, George Weston sold its wholly owned bakery Weston Foods in 2022. The firm is controlled by the Weston family, which owns a 65% stake.

Executives

Richard Dufresne	Senior Officer
Rashid Wasti	Senior Officer
Willard Galen Garfield Weston	10% Security Holder, Director, Senior Officer
Andrew Michael Bunston	Senior Officer
Camilla H. Dalglish	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
William Downe	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
M. Marianne Harris	Director, Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
John Stewart Lacey	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Gordon Andrew Mcdonald Currie	Senior Officer
Paviter Singh Binning	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Alannah Elizabeth Weston	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
Kieran Barry Columb	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6)
Robert George Vaux	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder
W. Galen Weston	10% Security Holder
Anthony S. Fell	Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder

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