ULH (Universal Logistics Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Universal Logistics Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Universal Logistics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Universal Logistics Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Universal Logistics Holdings Inc (NAS:ULH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12755 East Nine Mile Road, Warren, MI, USA, 48089

Website

https://www.universallogistics.com

Universal Logistics Holdings Inc is an asset-light provider of customized transportation and logistics solutions throughout the United States, and in Mexico, Canada and Colombia. It offers services such as truckload, brokerage, intermodal, dedicated, and value-added services. The company reports into four segments namely trucking, intermodal, company-managed brokerage, and contract logistics. The majority of the revenue is earned from the contract logistics segment.

Executives

Matthew T Moroun	director, 10 percent owner	12225 STEPHENS ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Michael A. Regan	director	360 W. BUTTERFIELD ROAD, SUITE 400, ELMURST IL 60126
Frederick P Calderone	director	C/O CENTRAL TRANSPORT INTL, 12225 STEPHENS RD, WARREN MI 48089
Marcus D. Hudson	director	12755 E. NINE MILE ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Richard P Urban	director	C/O UNIVERSAL TRUCKLOAD SERVICES, INC., 11355 STEPHENS ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Nora M. Moroun	10 percent owner	12225 STEPHENS ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Matthew J. Moroun	director	12225 STEPHENS ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Timothy Phillips	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	12755 E. NINE MILE ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Jeff Rogers	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	720 SPYGLASS HILL, HOLLAND MI 49424
H.e. Wolfe	director	11355 STEPHENS ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Clarence W Gooden	director
Grant Edward Belanger	director	12755 EAST NINE MILE ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Jude Marcus Beres	officer: Chief Financial Officer	12755 E. NINE MILE ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
David A. Crittenden	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11355 STEPHENS ROAD, WARREN MI 48089
Manuel J Moroun	director, 10 percent owner	CENTRAL TRANSPORT INTL, 12225 STEPHENS RD, WARREN MI 48089