UUUU (Energy Fuels) Predictability Rank

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What is Energy Fuels Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energy Fuels Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Energy Fuels Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Energy Fuels Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Energy Fuels Inc (AMEX:UUUU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0UU0:UK VO51:Germany VO51:Germany EFR:Canada

Address

225 Union Boulevard, Suite 600, Lakewood, CO, USA, 80228

Website

https://www.energyfuels.com

Energy Fuels Inc is a United States-based critical minerals company. The Company mines uranium and produces natural uranium concentrates that are sold to nuclear utilities for the production of carbon-free nuclear energy. It holds two of America's key uranium production centers: The White Mesa Mill in Utah, and the Nichols Ranch ISR Facility in Wyoming. It has three reportable segments based on its operations and financial information; Uranium, HMS, and REE.

Executives

Daniel Kapostasy	officer: VP, Technical Services	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Barbara Appelin Filas	director	321 COUNTRY CLUB PARK ROAD, GRAND JUNCTION CO 81507
Logan Shumway	officer: VP, Processing Operations	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
J. Birks Bovaird	director	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Alex G Morrison	director	1658 COLE BLVD., BLDG. 6, SUITE 210, LAKEWOOD CO 80401
Dennis Lyle Higgs	director	SUITE 1410, 800 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 2V6
Jaqueline Herrera	director	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Mark Chalmers	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Benjamin Iii Eshleman	director	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC, 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Robert W. Kirkwood	director	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC, 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Ivy Estabrooke	director	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
David C. Frydenlund	officer: Sr. VP, Gen. Coun. & Corp. Sec	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Dee Ann Nazarenus	officer: Vice President, Human Resource, other: and Administration	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Bruce D Hansen	director	1700 LINCOLN STREET, 28TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80203
Curtis Moore	officer: VP Mktg & Corp. Development	C/O ENERGY FUELS INC., 225 UNION BLVD., SUITE 600, LAKEWOOD CO 80228