VC (Visteon) Predictability Rank

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What is Visteon Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Visteon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Visteon Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Visteon Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Visteon Corp (NAS:VC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VS51:Germany VS51:Germany

Address

One Village Center Drive, Van Buren Township, MI, USA, 48111

Website

https://www.visteon.com

Visteon Corp is an automotive supplier. It manufactures electronics products for original equipment vehicle manufacturers including Ford, Nissan, Renault, Mazda, BMW, General Motors, and Honda, etc. The company offers information displays, instrument clusters, head-up displays, infotainment systems, telematics solutions, and Smartcore. The Company's reportable segment is Electronics. The Electronics segment provides vehicle cockpit electronics products to customers, including digital instrument clusters, domain controllers with integrated driver assistance systems, displays, Android-based infotainment systems, and battery management systems. Geographically, it operates in North America, Europe, China, Asia-Pacific, and South America and Others.

Executives

Sachin Lawande	director, officer: CEO & President	HARMAN INTERNATIONAL, 400 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 1500, STAMFORD CT 06901
Jeffrey David Jones	director	VISTEON CORPORATION, ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111
Joao Paulo Ribeiro	officer: Senior Vice President	VISTEON CORPORATION, ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111
Qais M Sharif	officer: Senior Vice President	VISTEON CORPORATION, ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111
Brett D Pynnonen	officer: V.P. & General Counsel	26555 NORTHWESTERN HIGHWAY, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Jerome Rouquet	officer: Senior Vice President	26555 NORTHWESTERN HIGHWAY, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Robert R Vallance	officer: Vice President	VISTEON CORPORATION, ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111
Robert Manzo	director	PARK 80 W PLZ 2, SADDLE BROOK NJ 07663
David L Treadwell	director	222 S 15TH STREET, SUITE 600 N, OMAHA NE 68102
Kristin Trecker	officer: Senior Vice President & CHRO	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Bunsei Kure	director	VISTEON CORPORATION, ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48167
Francis M Scricco	director	C/O AVAYA INC., 211 MOUNT AIRY ROAD, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Matthew M Cole	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111
Abigail S Fleming	officer: Vice President & CAO	VISTEON CORPORATION, ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111
Sunil K Bilolikar	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE VILLAGE CENTER DRIVE, VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP MI 48111