What is Visium Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Visium Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Visium Technologies (Visium Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4094 Majestic Lane, Suite 360, Fairfax, VA, USA, 22033
Visium Technologies Inc is a Virginia based company focused on providing innovative cybersecurity solutions to businesses which protect and secure the operating landscape of the enterprise and their data assets. The Company operates in one business segment which technologies are focused on cybersecurity. The company's focus is on test and measurement, test and evaluation, and cybersecurity solutions to protect connected devices (Internet of Things, or "IoT" and Industrial Internet of Things "IIoT"). This includes securing industrial systems from penetration. The company do this through a proprietary IoT test platform which it calls the Cyber Physical Test Bench, and by visualizing and prioritizing remediation of technology risks.
Executives
| Adote Solomon Nii Akwei |
director |
623 RAVENGLASS DRIVE, BASEMENT, TOWNSEND DE 19734 |
| Wayne Harrison Monk |
director |
1220 CLUB COVE DR, GREENSBORO GA 30642 |
| Thomas Michael Grbelja |
director, 10 percent owner |
151 BIRCH ROAD, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417 |
| Mark Burdon Lucky |
officer: CFO |
22900 SHAW ROAD, SUITE 111, STERLING VA 20166 |
| Henry Jameson Holcombe |
officer: CEO |
3513 BROADRUN DR, FAIRFAX VA 22033 |
| Paul Anthony Favata |
director |
110 18TH AVENUE SOUTH, SAINT PETERSBURG FL 33705 |
| Sterling Kevin Yates |
officer: CEO |
1201 MAIN ST., SUITE 1980, COLUMBIA SC 29201 |
| Frank Phillip Reilly |
director |
1415 SUNSET HARBOUR DRIVE, APT 406, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139 |
| David S Brooks |
director |
7 THACKERAY PLACE, DURHAM NC 27707 |
| Richard Hersh |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
903 CLINT MOORE ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33487 |
| Brett L Kublin |
director |
7311 NORTHEAST 1ST PLACE, MIAMI FL 33138 |
| Michael J Darden |
director, officer: President |
903 CLINT MOORE ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33487 |
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