Arctic Paper (WAR:ATC) Predictability Rank


WAR:ATC Arctic Paper SA WAR:ATC
58 GF Score
Price zł5.80
GF Value zł14.28
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Arctic Paper Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arctic Paper Predictability Rank Related Terms

WAR:ATC
58GF Score
Arctic Paper SA WAR:ATC
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Arctic Paper Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Arctic Paper (WAR:ATC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Arctic Paper stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of zł5.80 is trading 59.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of zł14.28. GuruFocus considers Arctic Paper to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for WAR:ATC:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: zł14.28 vs. price of zł5.80 (59.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 58/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the WAR:ATC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Arctic Paper Business Description

Other Exchanges ARP:SwedenA0P:Germany
Address UL. Fabryczna 1, Kostrzyn nad Odra, Lubuskie, POL, 66470
Arctic Paper SA produces a volume of bulky book paper and produces high-quality graphic paper in Europe. The group produces numerous types of uncoated and coated wood-free paper as well as wood-containing uncoated paper for printing houses, paper distributors, book and magazine publishing houses, and the advertising industry. The company's segment includes Paper and Pulp. The firm derives maximum revenue from the Paper segment. The majority of revenue is generated from Uncoated segment. Geographically, the firm derives revenue from Germany, France, the UK, Scandinavia, Western Europe (other countries), Poland, Central and Eastern Europe (other than Poland), and Outside Europe.
58GF Score

Get the complete analysis for WAR:ATC

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

zł5.80
Price
zł14.28
GF Value