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WindGen Energy (WindGen Energy) Predictability Rank


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What is WindGen Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WindGen Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

WindGen Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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WindGen Energy (WindGen Energy) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » WindGen Energy Inc (OTCPK:WGEI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ANSU NXTFF IVFZF MUSS PLYN KSSH PBAJ SVMB BOM:543385 SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT PVNC DWAC LSE:ADMR HCVI TRTL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8432 E. Shea Boulevard, Suite 101, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85260
Website
http://www.windgenenergy.com
WindGen Energy Inc is a shell company.
Executives
Ronald Conquest director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO (*) 3104 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 242, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Law Investments Cr, S.a. 10 percent owner 15029 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE B-111-520, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Wendy Carriere director, officer: Secretary/Treasurer, CFO 14550 N. FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT BLVD., SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Chi Lin Technology Co., Ltd. 10 percent owner NO.18, SHENG LI 1ST ST., JEN TE HSIANG, TAINAN COUNTY 71758, TAIWAN F4 00000
David P Martin director, officer: President 665 PALOMA COURT, BOULDER CITY NV 89005
Christopher R. Miller director, officer: Secretary/Treasurer; CFO 3875 EAST EVERETT DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85032
Wayne R. Myers director, officer: President; Prin Oper Officer 193A SUSSEX GARDENS, LONDON X0 W2 2RJ
Sng Consulting Llc 10 percent owner 15029 THOMPSON PEAK PKWY, B111-520, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85250
Ashley Conquest 10 percent owner 3104 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 242, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Sheng Jung Chiang director NO. 71, TE LUN RD., JEN TE HSIANG, TAINAN COUNTY F5 717
Mao-song Lee director NO. 71, TE LUN RD., JEN TE HSIANG, TAINAN COUNTY F5 717
Richard Kent Bruggeman director, officer: Secretary/Treasurer 3167 S. 2850 E., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Ralph Hoyt Henson director, officer: President & CEO 3092 TANGLEWOOD DRIVE, LAYTON UT 84040
Larry E Clark director, 10 percent owner 1036 OAKHILLS WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108

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