Petco Health and Wellness Co (Petco Health and Wellness Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Petco Health and Wellness Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Petco Health and Wellness Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Petco Health and Wellness Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Petco Health and Wellness Co (Petco Health and Wellness Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Petco Health and Wellness Co Inc (NAS:WOOF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WOOF:Mexico 7G9:Germany

Address

10850 Via Frontera, San Diego, CA, USA, 92127

Website

https://www.petco.com

Petco Health and Wellness Co Inc offer pet care products such as puppy food, treats, nutrition, and supplies through retail outlets and online platforms. The company generates revenue from the sale of products and services such as dog and cat food, supplies, and companion animals, among others.

Executives

Gary S Briggs	director	117 ADAMS STREET, C/O ETSY, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Giovanni Insana	officer: See Remarks	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Iris Yen	director	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
David Lubek	director	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Ron Coughlin	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Justin Tichy	officer: Chief Stores Officer	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Jason Heffelfinger	officer: Chief Services Officer	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Amy College	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Michael Nuzzo	officer: EVP, CFO & COO	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Brian Larose	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Katherine Nauman	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Cvc Pet Lp	10 percent owner	ONE MARITIME PLAZA, 16TH FLOOR, 300 CLAY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Scooby Aggregator, Lp	10 percent owner	ONE MARITIME PLAZA, 16TH FLOOR, 300 CLAY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board	10 percent owner	ONE QUEEN STREET EAST, STE 2500, TORONTO ONTARIO A6 0000
Rajendra M Mohan	director	1600 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY STE 200, C/O GOOD GUYS INC, ALAMEDA CA 94502