What is Exela Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Exela Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Exela Technologies Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2701 East Grauwyler Road, Irving, TX, USA, 75061
Exela Technologies Inc is a business process automation (BPA) leader combining industry-specific and multi-industry enterprise software and solutions. The company's BPA suite of solutions is deployed in banking, healthcare, insurance, and other industries. The company's segment includes Information and Transaction Processing Solutions (ITPS), Healthcare Solutions (HS), and Legal and Loss Prevention Services (LLPS). It generates maximum revenue from the ITPS segment.
Executives
| Par Chadha |
director, 10 percent owner |
|
| Matt Brown |
officer: Interim CFO |
2701 E. GRAUWYLER RD., IRVING TX 75061 |
| Shrikant Sortur |
officer: Senior VP, Global Finance |
42579 BEECHWOOD DR, STERLING HEIGHTS MI 48314 |
| Srinivasan Murali |
officer: President, Americas and APAC |
C/O EXELA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2701 E. GRAUWLER RD., IRVING TX 75038 |
| Vitalie Robu |
officer: President, EMEA |
C/O EXELA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2701 E. GRAUWYLER RD., IRVING TX 75038 |
| Mark D. Fairchild |
officer: President, Europe |
2701 E. GRAUWYLER ROAD, IRVING TX 75061 |
| William L Transier |
director |
3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043 |
| Marc A Beilinson |
director |
10100 SANTA MONICA BLVD STE. 1100, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Sharon Chadha |
director, 10 percent owner |
3003 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Delos Capital Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
120 FIFTH AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Delos Investment Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
120 FIFTH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Matthew Constantino |
10 percent owner |
120 FIFTH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Clark Coley |
director |
4055 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 1000, DALLAS TX 75244 |
| Martin P. Akins |
director |
ONE EXPRESS WAY, ST. LOUIS MO 63121 |
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