XENE (Xenon Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Xenon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xenon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Xenon Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:XENE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XP0:Germany

Address

200-3650 Gilmore Way, Burnaby, BC, CAN, V5G 4W8

Website

https://www.xenon-pharma.com

Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company committed to developing therapeutics to improve the lives of patients with neurological disorders, including rare central nervous system, or CNS, conditions. The product candidates of the group include XEN1101, XEN901, and XEN496 for Epilepsy, and Nav1.7 oral inhibitors for Pain. Geographically the activities are carried out throughout Canada.

Executives

Gary Patou	director
Elizabeth A. Garofalo	director	C/O ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 12830 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Steven Gannon	director	C/O XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A0 V5G 4W8
Sherrington Robin	officer: SVP Bus. & Corp. Development	C/O XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A1 V5G4W8
Dawn Svoronos	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Gillian Cannon	director	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Justin D. Gover	director	SOVEREIGN HOUSE, VISION PARK, HISTON, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB24 9BZ
Patrick Machado	director	201 SPEAR STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Simon N. Pimstone	director	200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A1 V5G4W8
Ian Mortimer	director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO	C/O XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A1 V5G4W8
Christopher John Kenney	officer: Chief Medical Officer	200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY, A1 V5G 48W
Andrea Difabio	officer: Chief Legal Officer	BIOVERATIV INC., 225 SECOND AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Sherry Aulin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A0 V5G 48W
James R. Empfield	officer: SVP, Drug Discovery	200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A1 VG5 48W
Seggern Christopher Von	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	200 - 3650 GILMORE WAY, BURNABY A1 V5G 48W