XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternativeome Trust (XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternativeome Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternativeome Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternativeome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternativeome Trust (XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternativeome Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust (NYSE:XFLT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

321 North Clark Street, Suite 2430, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.xainvestments.com

XAI Octagon FR & Alt Income Term Trust is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Trust's investment objective is to seek attractive total return with an emphasis on income generation across multiple stages of the credit cycle.

Executives

Theodore J Brombach	officer: President & CEO, other: Interested Trustee	321 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60054
John Yogi Spence	officer: CFO & Treasurer	321 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60054
Randi Jean Roessler	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O DESTRA MULTI ALTERNATIVE FUND, 443 NORTH WILLSON AVENUE, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Benjamin Mcculloch	officer: Secretary & CLO	321 NORTH CLARK STREET, SUITE 2430, CHICAGO IL 60654
John P Mcgarrity	officer: Chief Legal & Secretary	321 N. CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60054
Eagle Point Credit Management Llc	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ep Dif Cayman I Lp	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Eagle Point Core Income Fund Lp	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Eagle Point Cif Gp I Llc	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Eagle Point Dif Gp I Llc	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sean Michael Gleason	other: Sub-Adviser Inv Comm Member	250 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10177
Philip G Franklin	other: Trustee	C/O XA INVESTMENTS, 1290 BROADWAY STE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Andrew David Gordon	other: Sub-Adviser Inv Comm Member	250 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10177
Scott C Jones	other: Trustee	C/O XA INVESTMENTS, 1290 BROADWAY STE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Maegan Gallagher Boger	other: Sub-Adviser Inv Comm Member	250 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10177