CVS Health (XSGO:CVS) Predictability Rank


XSGO:CVS CVS Health Corp XSGO:CVS
76 GF Score
Price $78.63
GF Value $59.97
! 10 Warning Signs
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What is CVS Health Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CVS Health Predictability Rank Related Terms

XSGO:CVS
76GF Score
CVS Health Corp XSGO:CVS
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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CVS Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is CVS Health (XSGO:CVS) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CVS Health stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $78.63 is trading 31.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $59.97.

Key valuation signals for XSGO:CVS:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $59.97 vs. price of $78.63 (31.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 76/100 with 10 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XSGO:CVS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

CVS Health Business Description

Address One CVS Drive, Woonsocket, RI, USA, 02895
CVS Health offers a diverse set of healthcare services. Its roots are in its retail pharmacy operations, where it operates around 9,000 stores primarily in the US. CVS is also a large pharmacy benefit manager (acquired through Caremark), processing about 2 billion adjusted claims annually. It operates a top-tier health insurer (acquired through Aetna) through which it serves about 27 million medical members. The acquisition of Oak Street Health added primary care services to the mix, which could have significant synergies with all existing business lines.
76GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XSGO:CVS

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$78.63
Price
$59.97
GF Value