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SilverCrest Mines (XSWX:SVL) Predictability Rank


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What is SilverCrest Mines Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SilverCrest Mines Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SilverCrest Mines Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SilverCrest Mines (XSWX:SVL) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » SilverCrest Mines Inc (XSWX:SVL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:03330 TSX:BSX ASX:PNR ASX:CYL TSX:TNX MIC:LNZL PHS:LC TSX:GOLD TSX:MAX TSX:ASO TSXV:BTR ASX:RND ASX:MML MIC:SELG TSX:FF TSXV:ORE TSXV:AU LSE:HUM TSXV:GRZ TSX:ITH
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.silvercrestmines.com
SilverCrest Mines Inc was incorporated on May 22, 1973 under the laws of Ontario as Equitable Mines Limited and changed its name to Magic Foods Inc. on July 24, 1985. The Company was continued on May 15, 1998 under the laws of British Columbia as "Lucre Ventures Ltd. The name of the Company was changed to "Strathclair Ventures Ltd." on September 5, 2001 and to "SilverCrest Mines Inc." on May 23, 2003. The Company is a Canadian precious metals producer with a silver and gold asset base and an operating mine located in Mexico. The Company's principal property is the 100% owned Santa Elena Project, which includes the Santa Elena Mine, located 150 kilometres northeast of Hermosillo, near Banamichi in the State of Sonora, Mexico. The Santa Elena Mine is a high-grade, epithermal silver and gold deposit that is currently being operated as an open pit heap leach operation. The Company's other principal property is the La Joya Property in Durango state, Mexico which contains a large polymetallic deposit that is being explored with the aim of developing silver, copper, gold and tungsten resources. The Company also has a portfolio of other mineral properties, which comprise of the Cruz de Mayo Project (Mexico), the Ermitano Property (Mexico), the Silver Angel Project (Mexico) and the El Zapote Project (El Salvador).

SilverCrest Mines (XSWX:SVL) Headlines

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