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XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTL Biopharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank


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What is XTL Biopharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XTL Biopharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

XTL Biopharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTL Biopharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (NAS:XTLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XTAE:PPBT XTAE:CANF XTAE:MTLF XTAE:CBI XTAE:KDST XTAE:BOLT XTAE:PLNT XTAE:HDST-M XTAE:DNA XTAE:GFC-M OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL MRNA XKRX:207940 XKRX:068270 XBRU:UCB XBRU:ARGX BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
XTLB:Israel H2K2:Germany
Address
5 Badner Street, P.O.Box 8241, Ramat Gan, ISR, 5218102
Website
https://www.xtlbio.com
XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd is engaged in the development of therapeutics for the treatment of unmet medical needs. Its products include hCDR1 and Recombinant Human Erythropoietin (rHuEPO). hCDR1 is a Phase II-ready asset compound, working through a mechanism of action, for the treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) and Sjogren's syndrome. hCDR1 is a synthetic peptide that includes approximately 20 amino-acid residues. rHuEPO, a known agent for anemia, is being developed to prolong the survival of patients with advanced multiple myeloma (MM). rHuEPO is used in clinical practice for the treatment of various anemias, including anemia of kidney disease and cancer-related anemia.
Executives
Kenneth J Zuerblis director 20 KINGSBRIDGE RD, PISCATAWAY NJ 08854
Jennifer L Good director 15 GREAT RING ROAD, SANDY HOOK CT 06482
Samuel Rudman director C/O XTL BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LTD, 711 EXECUTIVE BLVD., SUITE Q, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Ben-zion Weiner director 3 HAYOGEV STREET, MOSHAV MAZOR L3 73160
Michael S Weiss director 750 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joseph Edelman 10 percent owner C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd 10 percent owner C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Michael Cho 10 percent owner PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 499 PARK AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Scott Bradley 10 percent owner PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 499 PARK AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
William Kessler officer: Director of Finance C/O XTL BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 711 EXECUTIVE BLVD., SUITE Q, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Ron Bentsur officer: CEO 750 LEXINGTON AVE, 20TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
William James Kennedy director C/O XTL BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LTD, 711 EXECUTIVE BLVD., SUITE Q, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989