Ziff Davis (Ziff Davis) Predictability Rank

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What is Ziff Davis Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ziff Davis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ziff Davis (Ziff Davis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Ziff Davis Inc (NAS:ZD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JXC1:Germany

Address

114 5th Avenue, 15th Floor New York, NY 10011

Website

https://www.ziffdavis.com/

Ziff Davis is a vertically focused digital media and internet company whose portfolio includes leading brands in technology, entertainment, shopping, health, cybersecurity, and martech.

Executives

Vivek Shah	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O J2 GLOBAL, INC., 6922 HOLLYWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Sarah Ann Fay	director	5 GORHAN AVENUE, BROOKLINE MA 02445
Layth Taki	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1 COURT SQUARE WEST, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
W Brian Kretzmer	director	26110 ENTERPRISE WAY, STE 200, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Jeremy Rossen	officer: VP/General Counsel	ZIFF DAVIS INC, 114 5TH AVE,14TH AND 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Bret Richter	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11 PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Teresa A Harris	director	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
R Scott Turicchi	officer: President	C/O J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD, 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Douglas Y Bech	director	C/O J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS INC, 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD/LEGAL DEPT - 5TH FL., LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Richard S Ressler	director, 10 percent owner	C/O J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 6922 HOLLYWOOD BLVD, 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90028
Pamela Sutton-wallace	director	197 VAN VORST ST, APT 1505, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Scott C Taylor	director	20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
Stephen Ross	director
Robert J Cresci	director
Jon Miller	director	C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC, 141 NEEDHAM STREET, NEWTON MA 02464