What is Zivo Bioscience Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Zivo Bioscience Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Zivo Bioscience (Zivo Bioscience) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
21 East Long Lake Road, Suite 100, Bloomfield Hills, MI, USA, 48304
Zivo Bioscience Inc is a research and development company operating in both the biotech and agtech sectors, with an intellectual property portfolio comprised of proprietary algal and bacterial strains, biologically active molecules and complexes, production techniques, cultivation techniques, and patented or patent-pending inventions for applications in human and animal health. The company's pipeline candidates are; Bovine Mastitis, Canine Joint Health, Human Immune Modulation, Human Food Ingredients, and Skin Health.
Executives
| Alison A Cornell |
director |
210 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Christopher D. Maggiore |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
4788 NOBLES POND DR. NW, CANTON OH 44718 |
| Nola E Masterson |
director |
768 WEST CALIFORNIA WAY, WOODSIDE CA 94062 |
| John Bernard Payne |
director |
9900 NE 114TH CIRCLE, VANCOUVER WA 98662 |
| Strome Mezzanine Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
100 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1750, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Keith Marchiando |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ZIVO BIOSCIENCE, INC., 21 E. LONG LAKE ROAD, SUITE 100, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304 |
| Mark E Strome |
10 percent owner |
100 WILSHIRE BLVD, 15TH FL, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Strome Alpha Fund L P |
10 percent owner |
100 WILSHIRE BLVD SUITE 1750, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Strome Investment Management Lp |
10 percent owner |
100 WILSHIRE BLVD, 15TH FLOOR, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Strome Group, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
100 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1750, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Hep Investments Llc |
10 percent owner |
2804 ORCHARD LAKE RD, STE 205, KEEGO HARBOR MI 48320 |
| Rondeau Robert O Jr |
director |
70 WEST LONG LAKE RD, STE 119, TROY MI 48098 |
| Thomas Kevin Cox |
director |
470 MICHGAMME LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Andrew A Dahl |
officer: President, CEO |
7 WEST SQUARE LAKE ROAD, STE 6165, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
| Brian W Young |
other: See remarks below. |
1800 NW CORPORATE BLVD, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
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