Affirm Holdings (Affirm Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Affirm Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Affirm Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Affirm Holdings (Affirm Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Affirm Holdings Inc (NAS:AFRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

INFA QLYS ALTR RELY DLO TENB SPSC S WIX TDC MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

AFRM:Mexico

Address

650 California Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94108

Website

https://www.affirm.com

Affirm Holdings Inc offers a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. It comprises a point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. The firm generates its revenue from merchant networks, and through virtual card networks among others. Geographically, it generates a majority share of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Michael Linford	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Gic Private Ltd	10 percent owner	168 ROBINSON ROAD, #37-01 CAPITAL TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 068912
Rodriquez Manuel Sanchez	director	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Keith Rabois	director	C/O YELP! INC., 706 MISSION ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Noel Bertram Watson	director	400 1ST AVENUE, C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC., NEEDHAM MA 02494
Jenny J Ming	director
James D White	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 202-400-2920 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 5, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Jacqueline D Reses	director	C/O SQUARE, INC., 1455 MARKET STREET #600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Katherine Adkins	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC., 650 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Jeremy Liew	director	2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jeremy Philips	director	C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC., 141 NEEDHAM STREET, NEWTON MA 02464
Siphelele Jiyane	officer: Vice President, Controller	C/O AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC., 650 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Libor Michalek	officer: President, Technology	C/O AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC., 650 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Silvija Martincevic	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC., 650 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Sandeep Bhandari	officer: Chief Risk & Strategy Officer	71 STEVENSON STREET SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105