Alector (Alector) Predictability Rank

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What is Alector Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alector Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alector (Alector) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Alector Inc (NAS:ALEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0Z2:Germany

Address

131 Oyster Point Boulevard, Suite 600, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.alector.com

Alector Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing a novel therapeutic approach for the treatment of neurodegeneration. The firm is involved in developing therapies that are designed to simultaneously counteract pathologies by restoring healthy immune function to the brain. Its pipeline products include AL001, AL002, AL003, and AL101.

Executives

Sara Kenkare-mitra	officer: President and Head of R&D	C/O ALECTOR, INC, 131 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 600, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gary Romano	officer: Chief Medical Officer	TWO COMMERCE SQUARE, 2001 MARKET STREET, 28TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Arnon Rosenthal	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALECTOR, INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., #300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Marc Grasso	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O KURA ONCOLOGY, INC., 3033 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SUITE 220, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Terrance Mcguire	director, 10 percent owner	C/O POLARIS VENTURE PARTNERS LP, 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3350, WALTHAM MA 02154
Polaris Venture Management Co. Vi, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 8TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Richard H Scheller	director	C/O GENENTECH INC, 1 DNA WAY MS 49, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990
Paula Hammond	director	C/O ALECTOR, INC., 131 OYSTER POINT BLVD. SUITE 600, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Kristine Yaffe	director	C/O ALECTOR, INC., 131 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 600, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Tillman U. Gerngross	director	C/O ARSANIS, INC., 890 WINTER STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02451
Lavigne Louis J Jr	director	C/O ALLERGAN, INC., 2525 DUPONT DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92612
Elizabeth A. Garofalo	director	C/O ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 12830 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
David M. Wehner	director	C/O FACEBOOK, INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Robert King	officer: Chief Development Officer	950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 900, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Shehnaaz Suliman	officer: President and COO	901 GATEWAY BLVD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080