Allison Transmission Holdings (Allison Transmission Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Allison Transmission Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allison Transmission Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Allison Transmission Holdings (Allison Transmission Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (NYSE:ALSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1A7:Germany

Address

One Allison Way, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46222

Website

https://www.allisontransmission.com

Allison Transmission is the largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles. The company's automatic transmissions allow customers to achieve better fuel and operator efficiency than less expensive manual and automated manual transmissions. Allison serves several end markets, including on- and off-highway equipment and military vehicles. Its on-highway business has approximately 60% global market share. The company's transmissions can be found in Class 4 through Class 8 trucks, buses, and a limited number of large passenger vehicles (heavy-duty pickup trucks and motor homes). Allison also produces electric hybrid propulsion systems and is developing e-powertrains.

Executives

John Coll	officer: SVP, Global MSS	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
G Frederick Bohley	officer: SVP, CFO & Treasurer	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Niekerk Teresa Van	officer: VP, Global Purchasing & SQ	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Ryan A. Milburn	officer: VP, Product Engineering	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Thomas Eifert	officer: VP, Program Mgmt & Prod Pln	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Eric C. Scroggins	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel and Secretary	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
David S. Graziosi	officer: Exec VP, CFO and Treasurer	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Gustave Perna	director	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Philip J Christman	director	3240 S. CENTRAL AVENUE, CICERO IL 60804
Krishna Shivram	director	C/O WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC, 2000 ST JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Sasha Ostojic	director	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
D. Scott Barbour	director	C/O ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC., 4640 TRUEMAN BOULEVARD, HILLIARD OH 43026
Rafael Basso	officer: VP, Operations	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222
Carolann I Haznedar	director	350 POPLAR CHURCH ROAD, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Dana Jh Pittard	officer: VP, Defense Programs	ONE ALLISON WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46222