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Allison Transmission HoldingsALSN +3.18%96 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.15% as of Jun. 2026, which is 5% below its 10-year median of 20.20. GuruFocus rates ALSN with a GF Score™ of 96/100 and a GF Value™ of $144.29 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 993 Vehicles & Parts companies, Allison Transmission Holdings ranks better than 68.98% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Allison Transmission Holdings's forward rate of return for was 19.15%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Allison Transmission Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ALSN'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 6.26 Med: 20.2 Max: 34.17
Current: 18.23
During the past 13 years, Allison Transmission Holdings's highest Forward Rate of Return was 34.17. The lowest was 6.26. And the median was 20.20.
ALSN's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 68.98% of 993
companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 10.16
vs ALSN: 18.23
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Allison Transmission Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Allison Transmission Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Allison Transmission Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Allison Transmission Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
ALSN vs ALV, AUR, APTV: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Auto Parts subindustry, Allison Transmission Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Allison Transmission Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Allison Transmission Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Allison Transmission Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Allison Transmission Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.15% mean?
Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.15% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Allison Transmission Holdings and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 20.20. Over the past decade, Allison Transmission Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 6.26 to 34.17. According to the industry distribution chart, Allison Transmission Holdings ranks #308 out of 993 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, placing it in the top 31%.
Is Allison Transmission Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Allison Transmission Holdings' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.15% is near median its 10-year median of 20.20. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 6.26 to a high of 34.17. The Vehicles & Parts industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.16. Allison Transmission Holdings' value of 19.15% is 88.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Allison Transmission Holdings ranks #308 out of 993 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Allison Transmission Holdings has a GF Score™ of 96/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Allison Transmission Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to ALV and AUR?
According to the Vehicles & Parts industry distribution chart, Allison Transmission Holdings ranks #308 out of 993 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Allison Transmission Holdings in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.16. Allison Transmission Holdings' value of 19.15% is 88.5% above this benchmark. Historically, Allison Transmission Holdings' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 6.26 to 34.17 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 20.20 vs. the industry median of 10.16, Allison Transmission Holdings has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Vehicles & Parts company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Vehicles & Parts companies is 10.16, based on 993 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Allison Transmission Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.15% is 88.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Allison Transmission Holdings and its competitors. For the Vehicles & Parts industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.16 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Allison Transmission Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.15%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 20.20. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Allison Transmission Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $144.29, compared to a current price of $133.23 — trading 7.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.15%, which is near median its 10-year median of 20.20 and 88.5% above the Vehicles & Parts industry median of 10.16. Allison Transmission Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 96/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.15% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Allison Transmission Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $133.23 is trading 7.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of $144.29.
GuruFocus considers Allison Transmission Holdings to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for ALSN:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 19.15% (near median its 10-year median of 20.20)
GF Value™: $144.29 vs. price of $133.23 (7.7% below fair value)
Industry Position: 88.5% above the Vehicles & Parts median (#308 of 993)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ALSN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Allison Transmission is the largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. Its automatic transmissions allow customers to achieve better fuel and operator efficiency than less expensive manual and automated manual transmissions. Allison serves several end markets, including on- and off-highway equipment and military vehicles. Its on-highway business commands approximately 60% global market share. The company's transmissions can be found in Class 4-8 trucks, buses, and a limited number of large passenger vehicles (heavy-duty pickup trucks and motorhomes). Allison also produces commercial hybrid propulsion systems and is developing fully electric powertrains.
96GF Score
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