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Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank


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What is Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
43 Thorndike Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02141
Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company working on developing a novel therapeutic for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and other neurodegenerative diseases.
Executives
Joshua B Cohen director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer C/O AMYLYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 43 THORNDIKE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Justin B. Klee director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer C/O AMYLYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 43 THORNDIKE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Patrick D Yeramian officer: Chief Medical Officer 1815 PARKSIDE CIRCLE SOUTH, BOCA RATON FL 33486
James M Frates officer: Chief Financial Officer 88 SIDNEY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 021394136
Karen Firestone director C/O AMYLYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 43 THORNDIKE ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Gina Mazzariello officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O AMYLYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 43 THORNDIKE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Morningside Venture Investments Ltd 10 percent owner MCCARTHY LEGAL SERVICES, 1188 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON CENTRE MA 02459
Milne George M Jr director
Margaret Olinger officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O AMYLYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 43 THORNDIKE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Viking Global Investors Lp 10 percent owner 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Dragsa 96 Llc 10 percent owner 55 RAILROAD AVE., GREENWICH CT 06830
Als Invest 1 B.v. 10 percent owner EERSTE WELERINGDWARSSTRAAL 54E, 1017 TP, AMSTERDAM P7 1017
Isaac Cheng director C/O ATEA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 125 SUMMER STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Mvil, Llc 10 percent owner 22ND FLOOR HANG LUNG CENTRE, 2-20 PATERSON STREET, CAUSEWAY BAY K3 00000
Ole Andreas Halvorsen 10 percent owner 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901

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