BancFirst (BancFirst) Predictability Rank

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What is BancFirst Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BancFirst Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BancFirst (BancFirst) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » BancFirst Corp (NAS:BANF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 North Broadway Avenue, Oklahoma City, OK, USA, 73102

Website

https://www.bancfirst.bank

BancFirst Corp is engaged in providing banking services. The company's business unit includes metropolitan banks, community banks, Pegasus Bank, Worthington, other financial services and executive, operations and support. Metropolitan banks, community banks, Pegasus and Worthington offer traditional banking products such as commercial and retail lending, and a full line of deposit accounts. Other financial services are specialty product business units including guaranteed small business lending, residential mortgage lending, trust services, securities brokerage, electronic banking, and insurance. It derives a majority of interest income from Community Banks.

Executives

Darryl Schmidt	officer: Executive Vice President	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Kevin Lawrence	officer: Executive Vice President	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Mautra Staley Jones	director, Director	101 N. BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Leslie Jeannine Rainbolt	director, 10 percent owner	100 N. BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Robin Noel Smith	director, Director	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Joe Goyne	director, officer: Director	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Dennis L Brand	director, officer: Executive Vice President	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
H E Rainbolt	director, officer: Chairman	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Dennis Jay Hannah	officer: Executive Vice President	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73120
Dave R Lopez	director	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Craig C L Jr	director	100 N. BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
David E Rainbolt	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O BANCFIRST CORP, 100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Scott Copeland	officer: Executive Vice President	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Bf Bank Partners Lp	10 percent owner	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Main Street Banking Partners Lp	10 percent owner	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102