What is Conifer Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Conifer Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Conifer Holdings (Conifer Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
550 West Merrill Street, Suite 200, Birmingham, MI, USA, 48009
Conifer Holdings Inc is an insurance company engaged in the sale of property and casualty insurance products. It is engaged in three classes of insurance businesses; commercial lines, personal lines, and wholesale agency business. Within these three businesses, the company offers various insurance products and insurance agency services. The company views the commercial and personal lines segments as underwriting business. The wholesale agency business provides non-risk bearing revenue through commissions and policy fees. Its revenues are derived from premiums earned from insurance operations.
Executives
| James G Petcoff |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO |
350 N NINTH STREET, SUITE 202, BOISE ID 83702 |
| Gerald W Hakala |
director |
550 W. MERRILL STREET, SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| Brian J Roney |
officer: President |
28819 FRANKLIN ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034 |
| Nicholas J Petcoff |
director, officer: EVP, Secretary |
550 W. MERRILL STREET, SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| Joseph D Sarafa |
director |
11123 BUGAI, TRAVERSE CITY MI 49684 |
| Clarkston Ventures, Llc |
10 percent owner |
91 WEST LONG LAKE ROAD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304 |
| Jeffrey Anthony Hakala |
director |
91 WEST LONG LAKE ROAD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304 |
| Williams R Jamison Jr |
director |
28819 FRANKLIN ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034 |
| Isolde O'hanlon |
director |
550 W MERRILL, SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| Timothy Lamothe |
director |
26 WAKEMAN ROAD, SOUTH SALEM NY 10590 |
| Andrew Petcoff |
officer: SVP, Marketing |
550 W. MERRILL STREET, SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| John William Melstrom |
director |
355 S. OLD WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| Mark Mccammon |
director |
550 W. MERRILL STREET, SUITE 200, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| Harold J Meloche |
officer: CFO, Treasurer |
28819 FRANKLIN ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034 |
| Jorge J Morales |
director |
28819 FRANKLIN ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034 |
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