Cogent Biosciences (Cogent Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Cogent Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cogent Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cogent Biosciences (Cogent Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cogent Biosciences Inc (NAS:COGT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

275 Wyman Street, 3rd Floor, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.cogentbio.com

Cogent Biosciences Inc a biotechnology company focused on developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases. It designs rational precision therapies that treat the underlying cause of disease and improve the lives of patients. Its program CGT9486, is a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor designed to potently inhibit the KIT D816V mutation as well as other mutations in KIT exon 17. In the vast majority of cases, KIT D816V is responsible for driving Systemic Mastocytosis (SM), a serious disease caused by the unchecked proliferation of mast cells. Exon 17 mutations are also found in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), a type of cancer with strong dependence on oncogenic KIT signaling.

Executives

Fairmount Funds Management Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Evan Kearns	officer: Chief Legal Officer	AGENUS INC., 3 FORBES ROAK, LEXINGTON MA 02421
John L. Green	officer: Chief Financial Officer	MERRIMACK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B7201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
John Edward Robinson	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O COGENT BIOSCIENCES, INC., 200 CAMBRIDGE PARK DRIVE, SUITE 2500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Christopher W. Cain	director	2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Peter Evan Harwin	director	2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Arlene Morris	director	C/O AFFYMAX, INC., 4001 MIRANDA AVE., PALO ALTO CA 94304
Todd Shegog	director	200 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 320, C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jessica Sachs	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O UNUM THERAPEUTICS INC., 200 CAMBRIDGE PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Matthew Ros	director	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Karen Jean Ferrante	director	150 ADIRONDACK DRIVE, EAST GREENWICH RI 02818
Andrew R Robbins	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O 3200 WALNUT ST, BOULDER CO 80301
Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	530 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Vhcp Management Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Vhcp Management Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018