Dime Community Bancshares (Dime Community Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Dime Community Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dime Community Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dime Community Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dime Community Bancshares (Dime Community Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Dime Community Bancshares Inc (NAS:DCOM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DCOMP.PFD:USA

Address

898 Veterans Memorial Highway, Suite 560, Hauppauge, NY, USA, 11788

Website

https://www.dime.com

Dime Community Bancshares Inc operates as a holding company. It gathers deposits from customers within its market area and via the internet, and invests them in multifamily residential, commercial real estate, commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, and one-to-four family residential real estate loans, as well as mortgage-backed securities, obligations of the U.S. government and government- sponsored enterprises (GSEs), and corporate debt and equity securities.

Executives

Stuart H Lubow	officer: President	300 CADMAN PLAZA WEST, 8TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Judith H Germano	director	898 VETERANS MEMORIAL HIGHWAY, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Basswood Capital Management, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher J Porzelt	officer: Chief Risk Officer	300 CADMAN PLAZA WEST, 8TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Basswood Partners, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Financial Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Financial Long Only Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Opportunity Fund Inc	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVE, 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
Basswood Opportunity Partners, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	BASSWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 645 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael Fegan	officer: Chief Technology & Ops Officer	300 CADMAN PLAZA WEST, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Kenneth J Mahon	director
Paul M Aguggia	director	1433 VAN HOUTEN AVENUE, CLIFTON NJ 07013
Mccoy Jr. Albert E	director	P.O. BOX 3005, BRIDGEHAMPTON NY 11932
Rosemarie Chen	director	300 CADMAN PLAZA WEST, 8TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Bennett D Lindenbaum	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022