Driven Brands Holdings (Driven Brands Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Driven Brands Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Driven Brands Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Driven Brands Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Driven Brands Holdings (Driven Brands Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Driven Brands Holdings Inc (NAS:DRVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

440 South Church Street, Suite 700, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28202

Website

https://www.drivenbrands.com

Driven Brands Holdings Inc is an automotive services company. The company provides an extensive range of core consumer and commercial automotive needs, including paint, collision, glass, vehicle repair, oil change, maintenance and car wash.

Executives

Jonathan G. Fitzpatrick	director, officer: President & CEO	440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Gary W Ferrera	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	3250 BRIARPARK, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77042
Muhammad Khalid	officer: EVP, Seg. Pres. - Maintenance	440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Rc Iv Cayman Icw Holdings Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks.	C/O ROARK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Neal K Aronson	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE., SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Driven Equity Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks.	C/O ROARK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Michael G. Macaluso	officer: EVP & Grp Pres-Pt., Coll & Gl.	440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Jose D. Tomas	director	5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Driven Equity Sub Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks.	C/O ROARK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Rc Iv Cayman Icw Holdings Sub Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks.	C/O ROARK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Roark Capital Partners Iii Aiv Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks.	C/O ROARK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Daniel R. Rivera	officer: EVP & Group President, Maint.	440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
John R. Teddy	officer: EVP & President, Car Wash N.A.	440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Karen B. Stroup	director	440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Michael Beland	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	440 S. CHURCH ST., SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NC 28202