Energy Focus (Energy Focus) Predictability Rank

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What is Energy Focus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energy Focus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Energy Focus (Energy Focus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Energy Focus Inc (NAS:EFOI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FI4A:Germany

Address

32000 Aurora Road, Suite B, Solon, OH, USA, 44139

Website

https://www.energyfocus.com

Energy Focus Inc engages in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sale of energy-efficient lighting systems and controls. It serves the military maritime market and general commercial markets. Its product offerings include Military maritime LED lighting products such as military intelligible, globe lights, berth lights, and military fixtures and Commercial products such as LED fixtures and panels, LED down-lights, LED dock lights, wall-packs, and LED retrofit kits. Geographically, it operates in the United States and other countries. Its products include Commercial products and MMM products. It generates a majority of its sales from Military maritime products in the United States.

Executives

Shou-jang Lee	director	32000 AURORA RD., SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Randy Harrison Gianas	officer: VP Operations & Engineering	32000 AURORA RD., SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Lesley A. Matt	officer: Chief Executive Officer	32000 AURORA RD., SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Warren James Raymond Iii	officer: SVP, GC & Corp. Secretary	TUCKER ELLIS LLP, 925 EUCLID AVE., SUITE 1150, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Wen-jeng Chang	director	32000 AURORA RD., SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Chiao Chieh Huang	director, 10 percent owner	32000 AURORA RD., SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Gina Huang	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ENERGY FOCUS, INC., 32000 AURORA ROAD, SOLON OH 44139
Daas Kaj Den	director	EIFELLAAN #3, 5691 GW, SON EN BREUGEL P7 00000
Clifford R. Griffin	officer: SVP, Corp. Controller & CAO	32000 AURORA ROAD, SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Jeffery Robert Parker	director	ENERGY FOCUS, INC., 32000 AURORA ROAD, SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Brian J Lagarto	director	32000 AURORA RD., SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Gregory S Galluccio	officer: Sr. VP, Product Mgmt & Engin.	32000 AURORA ROAD, SUITE B, SOLON OH 44139
Philip Politziner	director	C/O JENSYN ACQUISTION CORP, 800 WEST MAIN STREET, SUITE 204, FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Stephen Socolof	director	C/O EVERSPIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1347 N. ALMA SCHOOL ROAD, SUITE 220, CHANDLER AZ 85224
James Tu	director, officer: Executive Chairman & CEO	ENERGY FOCUS, INC., 32000 AURORA ROAD, SOLON OH 44139