Ethan Allen Interiors (Ethan Allen Interiors) Predictability Rank

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What is Ethan Allen Interiors Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ethan Allen Interiors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ethan Allen Interiors (Ethan Allen Interiors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (NYSE:ETD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

25 Lake Avenue Extension, Danbury, CT, USA, 06811 - 5286

Website

https://www.ethanallen.com

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. is a U.S.-based company that manufactures and retails home furnishings & accessories. The firm conducts activities through its wholly owned subsidiary, Ethan Allen Global, Inc., which operates through its own subsidiaries. The company does business across North America, Europe, Asia, & the Middle East. The vast majority of the firm's products are produced in its U.S. plants. The company's activities are divided between its Wholesale unit which includes case goods, upholstered products, and home accents, & its Retail segment. The majority of revenue within Wholesale is generated by upholstered products, & the majority of revenue for the overall company is derived from the Retail segment. Geographically, the majority of the company's revenue is produced in the U.S.

Executives

Rebecca L Thompson	officer: SVP, Merchandising	25 LAKE AVENUE EXT., DANBURY CT 06811
Ashley Fothergill	officer: SVP, Merchandising	25 LAKE AVENUE EXT., DANBURY CT 06811
Casar Perez Maria Eugenia	director	25 LAKE AVENUE EXT., DANBURY CT 06811
David M. Sable	director	77 HOT METAL STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15203-2329
Cynthia Ekberg Tsai	director	800 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10021
John Bernard Clark	director	25 LAKE AVENUE EXT., DANBURY CT 06811
James B. Carlson	director	ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811
Daniel M. Grow	officer: VP, Business Development	ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811
Whitely Corey	officer: Executive VP Operations	C/O ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC, ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811
M Farooq Kathwari	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	C/O ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC, ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811
Rodney A. Hutton	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	25 LAKE AVENUE EXT., DANBURY CT 06811-5286
Matthew J Mcnulty	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	601 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Domenick J. Esposito	director	ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811
Bedford John S Ii	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811
Mary Garrett	director	ETHAN ALLEN DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06811