Fentura Financial (Fentura Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Fentura Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fentura Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fentura Financial (Fentura Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Fentura Financial Inc (OTCPK:FETM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

175 North Leroy Street, P.O. Box 725, Fenton, MI, USA, 48430-3805

Website

https://www.fentura.com

Fentura Financial Inc is a bank holding company engaged in the business of financial services through its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The corporation provides banking and trust services principally to individuals, small businesses, and governmental entities through its community banking and loan processing offices. The primary deposit products include Checking, Savings, and Term certificate accounts, and the primary lending products comprise Residential mortgage, Commercial real estate, Commercial, Home equity, and Consumer loans. The corporation's sources of revenue include trust-related income, investment services income, ATM card income, debit card income, and service charges on deposit accounts.

Executives

James Distelrath	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	101 N LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430
Craig L Johnson	officer: Senior Lender - The State Bank	101 N LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430
Randy D Hicks	director	101 N. LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430
Frederick P Dillingham	director	175 N LEROY, FENTON MI 48340
Joanne Shaw	director	175 N LEROY, FENTON MI 48340
Ronald Rybar	director	175 N LEROY, FENTON MI 48340
James Wesseling	director	175 N LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48340
William Dery	director	175 N LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48340
Daniel Wollschlager	officer: SVP, Senior Lending Officer	175 NORTH LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430
Douglas Rotman	director	175 N LEROY, FENTON MI 48430
Sheryl Stephens	director	175 N LEROY, FENTON MI 48430
Kenneth R Elston	director	175 NORTH LEROY STREET, P.O. BOX 725, FENTON MI 48430
Holly J Pingatore	officer: Senior VP-The State Bank	175 NORTH LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430
John Emmendorfer	officer: President-Davison State Bank	175 NORTH LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430
Dennis Leyder	officer: Senior VP-The State Bank	175 NORTH LEROY STREET, FENTON MI 48430