First Financial Northwest (First Financial Northwest) Predictability Rank

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What is First Financial Northwest Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Financial Northwest Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Financial Northwest (First Financial Northwest) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Financial Northwest Inc (NAS:FFNW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Wells Avenue South, PO Box 360, Renton, WA, USA, 98057

Website

https://www.ffnwb.com

First Financial Northwest Inc is the holding company for First Financial Northwest Bank and First Financial Diversified. First Financial Northwest Bank is a subsidiary of First Financial Northwest and as such comprises substantially all of the activity for First Financial Northwest. The Bank's business consists predominantly of attracting deposits from the general public, combined with borrowing from the FHLB of Des Moines and raising funds in the wholesale market then utilizing these funds to originate one-to-four family residential, multifamily, commercial real estate, construction/land, business, and consumer loans. The Bank's strategic initiatives seek to diversify its loan portfolio and broaden growth opportunities with its current risk tolerance levels and asset/liability objectives.

Executives

Simon Soh	officer: Chief Lending Officer FSBNW	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Richard P Jacobson	officer: COO of the Bank
Kiley Joseph W Iii	director, officer: President and CEO of the Bank	IMPERIAL CAPITAL BANCORP INC, 888 PROSPECT STREET SUITE 110, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Cindy L. Runger	director	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Christine A. Huestis	officer: 1st VP/Prin. Acct Officer	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Richard M Riccobono	director	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Ralph C Sabin	director	C/O PACIFIC VENTURE GROUP, 114 PACIFICA STREET, SUITE 270, IRVINE CA 92618
Diane C. Davis	director	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Kevin D Padrick	director	2055 FIRST STREET, BAKER CITY OR 97814
Patricia M. Remch	director	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Randy T. Riffle	officer: Executive VP and CCO	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Gary F Faull	director	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Joann E Lee	director	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Ronnie J Clariza	officer: Sr.VP/Chief Risk Officer	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057
Gregg H. Deritis	officer: Senior VP and CCO	201 WELLS AVENUE SOUTH, RENTON WA 98057