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1-800-Flowers.com (1-800-Flowers.com) Predictability Rank


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What is 1-800-Flowers.com Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

1-800-Flowers.com Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

1-800-Flowers.com Predictability Rank Related Terms

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1-800-Flowers.com (1-800-Flowers.com) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » 1-800-Flowers.com Inc (NAS:FLWS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ARKO HZO BWMX WOOF CHPT BBW ONEW EVGO BARK LESL ORLY TSX:ATD AZO TSCO ULTA SHSE:601888 GPC WSM DKS BBY
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Two Jericho Plaza, Suite 200, Jericho, NY, USA, 11753
Website
https://www.1800flowers.com
1-800-Flowers.com Inc is a provider of gifts designed to help customers express, connect and celebrate. The company's e-commerce business platform features all brands, including 1-800-Flowers.com, 1-800-Baskets.com, Cheryl's Cookies, Harry and David, PersonalizationMall.com, Shari's Berries, FruitBouquets.com, Moose Munch, The Popcorn Factory, Wolferman's Bakery, Stock Yards, and Simply Chocolate. Through the Celebrations Passport loyalty program, which provides members with free standard shipping and no service charge across its portfolio of brands, the firm strives to deepen relationships with customers. The company also operates BloomNet, an international floral and gift industry service provider; Napco, a resource for floral gifts and seasonal decor; and DesignPac Gifts, LLC.
Executives
William E Shea officer: CFO ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Thomas G Hartnett officer: Senior Vice President ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Joseph Rowland officer: President, GFGB TWO JERICHO PLAZA, SUITE 200, JERICHO NY 11753
Leonard J Elmore director ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Steven A Lightman officer: President, GFGB 5372 E. GLENEAGLES DRIVE, TUCSON AZ 85718
Dinesh Popat officer: President, BloomNet, Inc. ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Christopher G Mccann director, officer: President ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Eugene F Demark director C/O BANKUNITED, INC., 14817 OAK LANE, MIAMI LAKES FL 33016
Arnold P Leap officer: Chief Information Officer ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Dina M. Colombo director ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Hofmann Stephanie Redish director ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Larry Zarin director ONE EXPRESS WAY, ST. LOUIS MO 63121
James F Mccann director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer, other: Chairman of the Board ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
James Mccann 2005 Trust other: Member of 10% owner group ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Matthew Mccann 2005 Trust other: Member of 10% owner group ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, CARLE PLACE NY 11514