Lazydays Holdings (Lazydays Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Lazydays Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lazydays Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lazydays Holdings (Lazydays Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Lazydays Holdings Inc (NAS:GORV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5ZL:Germany

Address

4042 Park Oaks Boulevard, Suite 350, Tampa, FL, USA, 33610

Website

https://www.lazydays.com

Lazydays Holdings Inc operates recreational vehicle dealerships. It provides products and services for RV owners and outdoor enthusiasts. The company generate revenue providing a full spectrum of RV products: New and pre-owned RV sales, RV-parts and service, financing and insurance products, third-party protection plans, after-market parts and accessories, and RV camping facilities.

Executives

John F North	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
Kelly Porter	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4042 PARK OAKS BLVD, SUITE 350, TAMPA FL 33610
Coliseum Capital Management, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Susan Scarola	director	4042 PARK OAKS BLVD, SUITE 350, TAMPA FL 33610
Suzanne Tager	director	4042 PARK OAKS BLVD, SUITE 350, TAMPA FL 33610
David Kanen	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	6429 NW 65TH WAY, PARKLAND FL 33067
Nicholas J Tomashot	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LAZYDAYS HOLDINGS, INC., 6130 LAZY DAYS BOULEVARD, SEFFNER FL 33584
B. Riley Financial, Inc.	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Philotimo Fund, Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Philotimo Focused Growth & Income Fund	other: See Explanation of Responses	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Kanen Wealth Management Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Bryant R Riley	10 percent owner	C/O B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC., 21255 BURBANK BLVD, SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Brf Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
B. Riley Principal Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
B. Riley Securities, Inc.	10 percent owner	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025