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El Pollo Loco Holdings (El Pollo Loco Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is El Pollo Loco Holdings Predictability Rank?

2 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

El Pollo Loco Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

El Pollo Loco Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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El Pollo Loco Holdings (El Pollo Loco Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (NAS:LOCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NATH PBPB THCH TAST FRGI STKS RRGB MHGU FAT NDLS MCD SBUX CMG LSE:CPG YUM TSX:QSP.UN YUMC TSX:QSR DRI HKSE:06862
Traded in Other Exchanges
EP6:Germany
Address
3535 Harbor Boulevard, Suite 100, Costa Mesa, CA, USA, 92626
Website
https://www.elpolloloco.com
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc operates and franchises hundreds of fast-casual chicken restaurants in the United States. Restaurant locations are typically free-standing and include drive-thrus, and menus include many low-priced options. Poultry is the company's largest food cost, accounting for roughly 38% of total food and paper cost, and the company manages that commodity price risk by using multiple suppliers and entering supply contracts of varying lengths depending on market conditions.
Executives
Sardar Biglari, 10 percent owner C/O BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC., 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Biglari Holdings Inc. 10 percent owner 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
John M Roth director 299 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
Fs Capital Partners V, Llc 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Biglari Capital Corp. 10 percent owner 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Lion Fund Ii, L.p. 10 percent owner 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Laurance Roberts officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Maria Hollandsworth officer: Chief Operating Officer 3535 HARBOR BLVD, STE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Fs Equity Partners V Lp 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Fs Affiliates V, L.p. 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
John M. Roth director, 10 percent owner C/O EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Ira Fils officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92614
Miguel Lozano officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER 3535 HARBOR BLVD., # 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Deborah Gonzalez director 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Faginas Cody Nancy director 3535 HARBOR BLVD, SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626