FedNat Holding Co (FedNat Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is FedNat Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FedNat Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FedNat Holding Co (FedNat Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » FedNat Holding Co (OTCPK:FNHCQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14050 N.W. 14th Street, Suite 180, Sunrise, FL, USA, 33323

Website

https://www.fednat.com

FedNat Holding Co is a provider of property and liability insurance products in the United States. It offers underwriting services to homeowner's multi-peril, personal automobile, commercial general liability, federal flood, and other lines of insurance. The company markets and distributes its own and third-party insurers' products, and other services through a network of independent and general agents. The segments of the company are Homeowners, Automobile and Other, of which a majority of the revenue is derived from the Homeowners segment. The Homeowners line of business consists of the homeowners and fire property and casualty insurance business.

Executives

David K. Patterson	director	14050 N.W. 14TH STREET, SUITE 180, SUNRISE FL 33323
Roberta Nell Young	director	23043 SUNFIELD DRIVE, BOCA RATON FL 33433
David W Michelson	director	111 CONGRESSIONAL BLVD., SUITE 500, CARMEL IN 46032
Ronald Arthur Jordan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5817 CRUTCHFIELD FARM RD, OAK RIDGE NC 27310
Erick Anthony Fernandez	officer: CAO	1537 MANTUA AVENUE, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Thomas Alexander Rogers	director	466 ROLLING ROAD, ROSEMONT PA 19010
Patrick Mccahill	officer: Chief Operating Officer	14050 NW 14TH STREET, SUITE 180, SUNRISE FL 33323
Michael H Braun	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer & Pres	14050 NW 14 STREET, SUITE 180, SUNRISE FL 33323
Bruce Simberg	director, other: Chairman of the Board	3440 HOLLYWOOD BLVD 2ND FL, HOLLYWOOD FL 33021
Wilcox Richard W Jr	director	7220 SW 6 STREET, PLANTATION FL 33317
Jenifer G Kimbrough	director	14050 NW 14 STREET, SUITE 180, SUNRISE FL 33323
William Gorman Stewart	director	4024 STEWART ROAD, BOX 159, STEVENSON MD 21153
Hale Partnership Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	3335 PARK SOUTH STATION BLVD., CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Hale Steven A Ii	10 percent owner	5960 FAIRVIEW ROAD, SUITE 432, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Hale Partnership Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	5960 FAIRVIEW ROAD, SUITE 432, CHARLOTTE NC 28210