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Winmark Predictability Rank


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3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Winmark Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Winmark Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Winmark's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Winmark Business Description

Winmark logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 533110 SIC : 5999
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
605 Highway 169 North, Suite 400, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55441
Winmark Corp is a franchisor of value-oriented retail store concepts that buy, sell and trade gently used the merchandise. The company's reportable segments include Franchising and Leasing. The franchising segment franchises value-oriented retail store that buys, sells, trade and consign merchandise as well as provide strategic consulting services relating to franchising. The leasing segment includes middle-market equipment leasing business and small-ticket financing business. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Franchising segment.
Executives
Mackenzie Kirk A director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Wilson Mark L director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Gaudette Renae M. officer: President of Franchising 605 HIGHWAY 169 N, SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Heffes Brett D director, officer: Chairman and CEO 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Ishaug Anthony D officer: Chief Financial Officer 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Barbetta Lawrence A director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Reyelts Paul C director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Grassle Jenele C director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Goff Leah A officer: VP of Human Resources 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Olson Ronald G 10 percent owner GROWN BIZ INTERNATIONAL INC 4200 DAHLBERG DRIVE MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422-4837
Morgan John L director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman 605 HIGHWAY 169 SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Murphy Steven officer: President of Franchising 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Zola Steven C director, officer: President, Winmark Capital 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Bradshaw James Shel 10 percent owner 12600 HILL COUNTRY BLVD SUITE R-230 AUSTIN TX 78738
Bares Brian Timothy 10 percent owner 12600 HILL COUNTRY BLVD SUITE R-230 AUSTIN TX 78738

Winmark Headlines

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