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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) Business Description

Address
7665 Corporate Center Drive, Miami, FL, USA, 33126
Norwegian Cruise Line is the world's third-largest cruise company by berths (at more than 66,000), operating 31 ships across three brands (Norwegian, Oceania, and Regent Seven Seas), offering both freestyle and luxury cruising. The company had redeployed its entire fleet as of May 2022. With six passenger vessels on order among its brands through 2028 (representing 16,500 incremental berths), Norwegian is increasing capacity faster than its peers, expanding its brand globally. Norwegian sails to around 700 global destinations.
Executives
Jose E. Cil director 5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Daniel S Farkas officer: EVP Gen. Counsel & Asst. Sec'y 5840 SW 117TH STREET, CORAL GABLES FL 33156
Faye L. Ashby officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Patrik Dahlgren officer: EVP, Vessel Operations 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Del Rio Frank J director, officer: Pres. & CEO 8300 NW 33RD STREET, SUITE 100, MIAMI FL 33122
Mark Kempa officer: EVP & CFO 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
David Herrera officer: Pres. NCL 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Del Rio Frank A. officer: Pres. Oceania Cruises C/O NEW BEGINNINGS ACQUISITION CORP., 800 1ST STREET, UNIT 1, MIAMI FL 33139
Andrea Demarco officer: Pres. RSSC 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Jason Montague officer: Pres. & CEO of RSSC C/O PRESTIGE CRUISES INTERNATIONAL, INC., 8300 NW 33RD STREET, SUITE 100, MIAMI FL 33122
Zillah Byng-thorne director 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Howard J Sherman officer: Pres. & CEO Oceania Cruises 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Russell W Galbut director 7665 CORPORATE DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Harry C Curtis director C/O NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS, 7300 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Robert Binder officer: Vice Chair, Pres. & CEO OCI 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126