Neonode (Neonode) Predictability Rank

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What is Neonode Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neonode Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Neonode (Neonode) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Neonode Inc (NAS:NEON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Karlavagen 100, Stockholm, SWE, 115 26

Website

https://www.neonode.com

Neonode Inc provides optical sensing solutions for contactless touch, touch, and gesture sensing and also provides software solutions for machine perception that feature machine learning algorithms to detect and track persons and objects in video streams from cameras and other types of imagers. It markets and sells its solutions to customers in many different markets and segments including, but not limited to, office equipment, automotive, industrial automation, medical, military, and avionics. The company's business areas are Human-Machine Interaction Solutions, Human-Machine Interaction Products, and Remote Sensing Solutions.

Executives

Cecilia Edstrom	director	KARLAVAGEN 100, STOCKHOLM V7 115 26
Fredrik Nihlen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEONODE, INC.,. 100 KARLAVAGEN, STOCKHOLM V7 115 26
Urban Forssell	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NEONODE, STORGATAN 23C, STOCKHOLM V7 11455
Mattias Bergman	director	C/O NEONODE, INC., STORGATAN 23C, STOCKHOLM V7 114 55
Ek Maria Anne-lee Charlotte	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEONODE, INC., STORGATAN 23C, STOCKHOLM V7 114 55
Ulf Rosberg	director	FAFNERVAEGEN 2, DJURSHOLM V7 18266
Hakan Persson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NEONODE INC., STORGATAN 23C, STOCKHOLM V7 114 55
Andreas Bunge	director	DRAGARSTIGEN 3, SALTSJOBADEN V7 133 36
Peter Lindell	10 percent owner	LILLA ERSTAGATAN 6, STOCKHOLM V7 116 28
Lars, Goran Lindqvist	director	ZUGERSTRASSE 20, UNTERAEGERI V8 6314
Asa Hedin	director	MORABERGSVAGEN 27, SALTSJOBADEN V7 133 33
Per Eriksson	director	VILDVINSVAGEN 5, SALTSJOBADEN V7 S-133 36
Bjorn Thomas Eriksson	officer: Vice President	STORANGSSTIGEN 15 C, STOCKSUND V7 18274
Mats Dahlin	director	LORETOHOHE 1, ZUG V8 6300
Bystedt Per Ivar Gosta	director	DJURGARDSVAGEN 144, STOCKHOLM V7 SE 115 21