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Northfield Bancorp (Northfield Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Northfield Bancorp Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northfield Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Northfield Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Northfield Bancorp (Northfield Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Northfield Bancorp Inc (NAS:NFBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ALRS NBN PGC SPFI MCB FFWM CCNE CSTR BHRB AROW NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 XPAR:BNP NSE:SBIN ISX:BBCA USB MIC:SBER SGX:D05
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
581 Main Street, Suite 810, Woodbridge, NJ, USA, 07095
Website
https://www.eNorthfield.com
Northfield Bancorp Inc is the holding company for Northfield Bank. Its subsidiary provides banking services to individuals and corporate customers in Richmond and Kings Counties in New York, and Hunterdon, Mercer, Union and Middlesex counties in New Jersey. The bank attracts deposits and offers credit and other banking services.
Executives
Patrick Louis Ryan director 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Vickie Tomasello officer: EVP/Chief Risk Officer 581 MAIN STREET, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Steven M Klein officer: COO and CFO 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
David Fasanella officer: EVP 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
William R. Jacobs officer: SVP and PAO 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Robin Lefkowitz officer: EVP 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Frank P. Patafio director 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Gil Chapman director 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Connors John P Jr director 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Gualberto Medina director 581 MAIN STREET, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Tara L French officer: EVP/Chief Admin. Officer 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Paul Stahlin director 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Michael J Widmer officer: EVP 1410 ST. GEORGES AVENUE, AVENEL NJ 07001
Annette Catino director 581 MAIN STREET, SUITE 810, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
John Wade Alexander director, officer: President and CEO 1410 ST. GEORGES AVENUE, AVENEL NJ 07001