Guess? (Guess?) Predictability Rank

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What is Guess? Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guess? Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Guess? (Guess?) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Guess? Inc (NYSE:GES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GU9:Germany

Address

Strada Regina 44, Bioggio, CHE, CH-6934

Website

https://investors.guess.com

Guess? Inc designs, markets distribute, and licenses contemporary apparel and accessories that reflect European fashion sensibilities under brands including Guess, Marciano, and G by Guess. The company has five reportable segments namely Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and licensing. It generates maximum revenue from the Europe segment.

Executives

Paul Marciano	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman and Co-CEO	C/O GUESS INC, 1444 S ALAMEDA ST, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Maurice Marciano	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman and Co-CEO	1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Deborah Weinswig	director	C/O XCEL BRANDS, INC., 1333 BROADWAY, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Markus Neubrand	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA ST, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Thomas Jr Barrack	director	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER ST., 44TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Fabrice Benarouche	officer: SVP Finance and IR, CAO	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 S. ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Anthony Chidoni	director	C/O GUESS INC, 1444 S ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Dennis R Secor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Carlos Alberini	director, officer: CEO and Director	C/O LUCKY BRAND, LLC, 540 SOUTH SANTA FE AVE., LOS ANGELES CA 90013
Alex Yemenidjian	director, other: Chairman of the Board	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Cynthia R Livingston	director	C/O GUESS, INC, 1444 S. ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Laurie Ann Goldman	director	3344 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 1700, ATLANTA GA 30326
Kathryn Low Anderson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 S. ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Gianluca Bolla	director	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Reddy Sandeep	officer: CFO	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021