>
Switch to:

CarMax Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial
5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, CarMax's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

CarMax Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, CarMax's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where CarMax's Predictability Rank falls into.



CarMax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

CarMax Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CarMax's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


CarMax Business Description

CarMax logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts NAICS : 423110 SIC : 5521
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway, Richmond, VA, USA, 23238
CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of 220 used retail stores at the end of fiscal 2021 plus one new vehicle store. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales account for about 83% of revenue, wholesale about 14%, and the remaining portion is composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2021, the company retailed and wholesaled 751,862 and 426,268 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used vehicle retailer in the U.S., but still estimates that it has only about 3.5% U.S. market share of vehicles 0 to 10 years old but seeks over 5% by the end of calendar 2025. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Executives
Oneil Mark F director C/O CARMAX, INC. 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Reedy Thomas W Jr officer: EVP of Finance 12800 TUCKHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Margolin Eric M officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary C/O ADVANCE AUTO PARTS 5673 AIRPORT RD ROANOKE VA 24012
Lyski James officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer ONE NATIONWIDE PLAZA 1-38-06 COLUMBUS OH 43215
Nash William D officer: President & CEO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Daniels Jon G officer: SVP, CAF 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Folliard Thomas J director 4900 COX RD GELN ALLEN VA 23060
Livesay Jill A officer: VP, Controller & PAO CARMAX, INC. 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Cafritz Diane L officer: SVP & CHRO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Hill Edwin J officer: EVP & COO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Blaylock Ronald E director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BLAYLOCK RONALD E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Satriano Pietro director C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP. 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., STE 100 ROSEMONT IL 60018
Shinder Marcella director 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY RICHMOND VA 23238
Steenrod Mitchell D director 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PKWY RICHMOND VA 23238
Mccreight David W. director C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19112

CarMax Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)