What is Saker Aviation Services Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Saker Aviation Services Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Saker Aviation Services (Saker Aviation Services) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
20 South Street, Pier 6 East River, New York, NY, USA, 10004
Saker Aviation Services Inc operates in aviation services. It serves as the operator of a heliport, a fixed base operation (FBO), a provider of aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul services, and consultant for non-owned seaplane base. The company focuses on safety, outstanding customer service, and personalized solutions and it offers full-service FBOs provide products and services for commercial airlines, private and business jets, military aircraft, and rotor aircraft. Geographically, business activities are carried out throughout the region of the United States.
Executives
| Roy Moskowitz |
director |
20 SOUTH STREET, PIER 6 EAST RIVER, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Mark N Raab |
officer: Acting Principal Fin. Officer |
C/O TECHSYS INC, 147 COLUMBIA TURNPIKE SUITE 109, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932 |
| Samuel D. Goldstein |
director |
20 SOUTH STREET, PIER 6 EAST RIVER, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Marc Chodock |
director |
110 EAST 25TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Acm Value Opportunities Fund I Gp, Llc |
other: See Footnote (2) |
C/O ARVICE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 110 EAST 25TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Arvice Capital Management, Llc |
other: See Footnote (2) |
110 EAST 25TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Acm Value Opportunities Fund I, Lp |
other: See Footnote (2) |
C/O ARVICE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 110 EAST 25TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Ronald J Ricciardi |
director, officer: President and CEO |
100 HANGAR ROAD, WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNTL. AIRPORT, AVOCA PA 18641 |
| Jeffrey B Mendell |
director |
JBM REALTY, 10 GLENVILLE STREET, GREENWICH CT 06831 |
| Donald Hecht |
director |
111 WEST 40TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Alvin S Trenk |
director |
44 ASPEN DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039 |
| William B Wachtel |
director, 10 percent owner |
110 EAST 59TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Gary E Hart |
officer: COO and Senior VP |
236 SING SING ROAD, ELMIRA-CORNING REGIONAL AIRPORT, HORSEHEADS NY 14845 |
| Stephen B Siegel |
director |
200 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10166 |
| Thomas Iovino |
director |
C/O JUDLAW CONTRACTING, INC., 26-15 ULMER ST., COLLEGE POINT NY 11354 |
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