Utz Brands (Utz Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Utz Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Utz Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Utz Brands (Utz Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Utz Brands Inc (NYSE:UTZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 High Street, Hanover, PA, USA, 17331

Website

https://www.utzsnacks.com

Utz Brands Inc is a snack food manufacturing company. It manufactures a diverse portfolio of salty snacks under popular brands including Utz, Zapp's, Golden Flake, Good Health, Boulder Canyon, Hawaiian, TORTIYAHS!, among others. The company's products include potato chips, pretzels, cheese snacks, pork skins, pub/party mixes, and veggie snacks. Its products are distributed nationally and internationally through grocery, mass merchant, club, convenience, drug, and other channels. It operates in the given segment: the manufacturing, distribution, marketing and sale of snack food products.

Executives

Theresa Robbins Shea	officer: EVP and General Counsel	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Jennifer Bentz	officer: EVP, Insights, Innov & Mktg	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Dylan Lissette	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	860 WESTMINSTER AVENUE, HANOVER PA 17331
Roger K Deromedi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Chinh Chu	10 percent owner	THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Cc Collier Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O CC CAPITAL, 200 PARK AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10166
Howard A Friedman	director, officer: CEO	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Chad Whyte	officer: EVP, Supply Chain	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Pamela J Stewart	director	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Shannan Redcay	officer: EVP, Manufacturing	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Cary Devore	officer: EVP & CFO	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
Shane Chambers	officer: EVP & Chief Growth Officer	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331
John W Altmeyer	director	946 HIGHMEADOW COURT, LANCASTER PA 17601
Antonio F. Fernandez	director	C/O PINNACLE FOODS INC., 399 JEFFERSON ROAD, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Ajay Kataria	officer: EVP, Finance & Accounting	900 HIGH STREET, HANOVER PA 17331