Virco Manufacturing (Virco Manufacturing) Predictability Rank

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What is Virco Manufacturing Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Virco Manufacturing Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Virco Manufacturing Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Virco Manufacturing (Virco Manufacturing) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Virco Manufacturing Corp (NAS:VIRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2027 Harpers Way, Torrance, CA, USA, 90501

Website

https://www.virco.com

Virco Manufacturing Corp is engaged in designing, production and distributing quality furniture for the commercial and education markets. The company manufactures an assortment of products, including mobile tables, mobile storage equipment, desks, computer furniture, chairs, and activity tables, folding chairs, and folding tables. Its primary furniture lines are constructed of tubular metal legs and frames, combined with wood and plastic tops, plastic seats and backs, upholstered seats and backs, and upholstered rigid polyethylene and polypropylene shells. Geographically, it operates in the United States and Canada.

Executives

Patricia Levine Quinones	officer: Vice President	6008 E. CALLE CEDRO, ANAHEIM CA 92807
Bradley C Richardson	director
Craig L Levra	director	C/O SPORT CHALET INC, ONE SPORT CHALET DRIVE, LA CANADA CA 91011
Agnieszka Winkler	director	C/O INTER-TEL, INCORPORATED, 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Kathleen D Young	director	C/O VIRCO MFG. CORPORATION, 2027 HARPERS WAY, TORRANCE CA 90501
Douglas A Virtue	director, officer: Executive Vice President
Robert A Virtue	director, officer: President & CEO & Chairman
Donald R Rudkin	director	C/O VIRCO MFG. CORPORATION, 2027 HARPERS WAY, TORRANCE CA 90501
Alexander L Cappello	director	C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC, 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Bassey Yau	officer: Assistant Secretary / Treasure	5502 MARICOPA ST., TORRANCE CA 90501
Robert M Hupe	officer: VP General Counsel	C/O VIRCO MFG. CORPORATION, 2027 HARPERS WAY, TORRANCE CA 90501
Jerry Scott Bell	officer: COO	C/O VIRCO MFG. CORPORATION, TORRANCE CA 90501
Robert James Devers	officer: Sr. VP, Information Technology	C/O VIRCO MFG. CORPORATION, 2027 HARPERS WAY, TORRANCE CA 90501
Johnson James David Ii	officer: Sr. Vice President Marketing	C/O VIRCO MFG. CORPORATION, 2027 HARPERS WAY, TORRANCE CA 90501
Michael Anthony Digregorio	director	C/O IRONCLAD PERFORMANCE WEAR CORP., 2201 PARK PLACE, SUITE 101, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245