Waynevings Bancshares (Waynevings Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Waynevings Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Waynevings Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Waynevings Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Waynevings Bancshares (Waynevings Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Wayne Savings Bancshares Inc (OTCPK:WAYN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

151 North Market Street, Wooster, OH, USA, 44691

Website

https://www.waynesavings.com

Wayne Savings Bancshares Inc a bank holding company. It offers services such as checking accounts, savings, business loans, online banking, mobile banking, and overdraft protection among others. The bank generates its revenue in the form of interest income.

Executives

Joel Dale Beckler	officer: SVP, Senior Loan Officer	3058 BAYBERRY COVE, WOOSTER OH 44691
Brian Hopkins	director	6060 PARKLAND, SUITE 200, CLEVELAND OH 44124
James R Vansickle	director, officer: President and CEO	112 WEST MARKET STREET, PO BOX 57, ORRVILLE OH 44667
Glenn W Miller	director	151 N MARKET ST, WOOSTER OH 44691
David L Lehman	director	151 N MARKET ST, WOOSTER OH 44691
Myron L Swartzentruber	officer: Senior Vice Preisdent/CFO	C/O WAYNE SAVINGS BANCSHARES, INC., 151 N. MARKET ST., WOOSTER OH 44691
Debra A Marthey	director	151 N MARKET ST, WOOSTER OH 44691
Jonathan Ciccotelli	director	C/O WAYNE SAVINGS BANCSHARES, INC., 151 N. MARKET ST., WOOSTER OH 44691
Rod C Steiger	director
Daniel R Buehler	director	WAYNE SAVINGS BANCSHARES INC, 151 NORTH MARKET STREET, WOOSTER OH 44691
Steven G Dimos	officer: EVP/Chief Operations Officer	C/O WAYNE SAVINGS COMMUNITY BANK, 151 NORTH MARKET STREET, WOOSTER OH 44691
Peggy J Schmitz	director	WAYNE SAVINGS COMMUNITY BANK, 151 N MARKET STREET, WOOSTER OH 44691
Bryan K Fehr	officer: See footnote (1)	151 N MARKET STREET, WOOSTER OH 44691
Fitz Gibbon H Stewart Iii	officer: See footnote (1)	WAYNE SAVINGS BANCSHARES, 151 N. MARKET STREET, WOOSTER OH 44691
Phillip E Becker	officer: EVP/CHIEF LENDING OFFICER	WAYNE SAVINGS BANCSHARES INC, 151 N. MARKET STREET, WOOSTER OH 44691