Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
MetcashASX:MTS 74 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.07% as of Apr. 2026, which is 31% below its 10-year median of 27.71. GuruFocus rates ASX:MTS with a GF Score™ of 74/100 and a GF Value™ of A$3.56 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 221 Retail - Defensive companies, Metcash ranks better than 64.71% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Metcash's forward rate of return for was 19.07%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:MTS'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 13.91 Med: 27.71 Max: 31.39
Current: 17.87
During the past 13 years, Metcash's highest Forward Rate of Return was 31.39. The lowest was 13.91. And the median was 27.71.
ASX:MTS's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 64.71% of 221
companies
in the Retail - Defensive industry
Industry Median: 14.19
vs ASX:MTS: 17.87
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Metcash (ASX:MTS) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Metcash Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Metcash Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ASX:MTS vs SYY, USFD, PFGC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Food Distribution subindustry, Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Metcash Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Metcash Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.07% mean?
Metcash (ASX:MTS) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.07% as of Apr. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Metcash and its competitors. This is 31% below median its historical median of 27.71. Over the past decade, Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 13.91 to 31.39. According to the industry distribution chart, Metcash ranks #78 out of 221 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, placing it in the top 35.3%.
Is Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Metcash's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.07% is 31% below median its 10-year median of 27.71. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 13.91 to a high of 31.39. The Retail - Defensive industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.19. Metcash's value of 19.07% is 34.4% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Metcash ranks #78 out of 221 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Metcash has a GF Score™ of 74/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Metcash's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to SYY and USFD?
According to the Retail - Defensive industry distribution chart, Metcash ranks #78 out of 221 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Metcash in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.19. Metcash's value of 19.07% is 34.4% above this benchmark. Historically, Metcash's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 13.91 to 31.39 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 27.71 vs. the industry median of 14.19, Metcash has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Retail - Defensive company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Retail - Defensive companies is 14.19, based on 221 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Metcash's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.07% is 34.4% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Metcash and its competitors. For the Retail - Defensive industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.19 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Metcash's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.07%, which is 31% below median its own 10-year median of 27.71. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Metcash stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Metcash (ASX:MTS) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$3.56, compared to a current price of A$2.97 — trading 16.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.07%, which is 31% below median its 10-year median of 27.71 and 34.4% above the Retail - Defensive industry median of 14.19. Metcash's overall GF Score™ is 74/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Metcash (ASX:MTS), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.07% as of Apr. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Metcash (ASX:MTS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Metcash stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of A$2.97 is trading 16.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$3.56.
GuruFocus considers Metcash to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:MTS:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 19.07% (31% below median its 10-year median of 27.71)
GF Value™: A$3.56 vs. price of A$2.97 (16.6% below fair value)
Industry Position: 34.4% above the Retail - Defensive median (#78 of 221)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:MTS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Metcash is a wholesaler, and to a lesser extent a retailer, specializing in food, liquor, and hardware. Centralized wholesale distribution enables independent retailers to gain access to the combined scale of many retailers to negotiate material volume discounts.The food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket and convenience stores. The hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets and operates company-owned stores. The liquor segment distributes liquor products to independent retailers and venues like pubs.
74GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ASX:MTS
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
ASX:MTS has been successfully added to your 
